Mike Rozlog makes some very interesting points in his article regarding the possible future of Java given the Oracle/Sun situation. As he says, he has likened Java to COBOL "...because almost every business today has some sort of Java somewhere doing something." He's quite right - COBOL and Java are present in just about every organization or transaction you can find.

However the key points in the post about the travails Java has been going through highlight a key difference. Whereas Java has been effectively owned by a single vendor, albeit with a process for requesting and making enhancements, it's never really benefited from an open standard that was, from the very beginning 50 years ago, driven by both vendors and users.

That process has ensured that users haven't had vendor lock-in (unless they considered the value of proprietary extensions worth the risk). We're seeing similar issues arising with the on-going discussions re vendor lock-in in the Cloud which is one of the key issues cited by IT managers when discussing their future plans for the Cloud. For COBOL, there has also been healthy competition between providers to ensure the language keeps moving forward - that has allowed the language to evolve incredibly with every changing shift in IT technology from big-iron mainframes, through Client/Server to .NET and Java.

Has the pace of change slowed down? Maybe. However looking at what we're working on at Micro Focus, I don't see that's the case. The Developer Showcase presentation on Micro Focus Live gives a flavour of some of that work.

I've no doubt Java will be around for a long time to come, however it seems every week there is a new contender to its crown. It will need to find a way to replicate the long-term success of COBOL if it is to stay relevant and that will probably involve handing ownership of the standard to an independent body and a process allowing both vendors and users to drive its evolution.

In the meantime, COBOL will continue to flourish and evolve for the next generation.